War in Afghanistan: When will it stop?

War in Afghanistan

Recently US announced withdrawal of its troops from Syria where they have had their presence since 2014. It is in line with US President Donald Trump's promise during his electoral campaign. Now many expect that Trump will soon announce withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan as well, which comes in direct contrast with his stand in 2017 when he announced his Afghanistan policy.

Let's look at the history of Afghanistan to understand the Afghan war in detail. 

Afghanistan has been seen as many as the "Graveyards of Empires." It is this soil which have seen defeat of great powers like Alexander, British Empire, the Soviets and now the US. 

Afghanistan is easy to conquer but difficult to rule because of its unique Physical as well as Human geography. Most of the part of Afghanistan is covered with large mountains and there are thousands of ethnic groups who have their own languages and cultures.

Afghanistan got its independence as early as 1919 where many of its neighbours were still under colonial occupation. Though Afghanistan was independent there were no formal government because of the large ethnic diversity throughout the country.

Most of the people in the countryside were totally isolated and sparsely populated. Thereafter, many kings ruled Afghanistan. But those kings were only controlling some parts of Afghanistan and in a very unstructured manner. 

Then came the communist revolution. Afghanistan had a communist rule till 1978. At that time US and USSR were engaged in cold war. Both were trying to contain each other's influence in different parts of the World. When USSR saw the communist regime was falling, it invaded Afghanistan in 1979. 

Initially, the USSR troops got huge success but soon many Rebel groups from different parts of Afghanistan who were fighting with each other previously joined hands to fight the USSR.

During this USSR invasion, USA had covertly created Mujahideens to fight the USSR. 

When USSR saw heavy losses in terms of resources and lives of its soldiers, it left Afghanistan in 1989. The rebel groups again started fighting with each other. This turned into the Afghan Civil war which lasted till 1996.

In 1996, one of the Rebel groups named Taliban got control over most of the parts of Afghanistan and formed the Government.

In 2001, the whole world got shocked when 9/11 terror attacks happened on the American soil and nearly 3,000 people got killed. US said the attacks had been carried out by a terrorist group Al-Qaeda which was based in Afghanistan. Soon the then President George Jr Bush declared America's War against Terror.

US asked the Taliban which was then running the government in Afghanistan to hand over Osama Bin Laden. According to US, Osama Bin Laden was the perpetrator who planned this attack.

When Taliban refused to hand over Osama, the US troops invaded the Afghanistan with an aim of eliminating the Terror networks.

Soon the US removed Taliban from Power and put an interim government in place of it. 

Democratic elections were held for the first time in Afghanistan in the year 2004 and again in 2009 and 2014 with the help of US and NATO troops.

Initially, US had a great success in pushing Taliban back. But soon after the US started withdrawing its troops after 2011, Taliban started capturing land.

Why have US troops failed against Taliban?

1. Poor infrastructure:

When US invaded Afghanistan, there were only 50 km of paved road as all roads had already been destroyed in war during USSR occupation and Afghan Civil war. Due to poor road network, it is very difficult on army's part to mobilize military resources through land.

2. Geographical location:

Afghanistan is a landlocked country. So it is difficult to fight Taliban through sea as well.

3. Warfare Tactics:

Taliban is adopting Guerrilla warfare tactics against the security forces. As the US troops are not familiar with the topography and steep terrains, they are finding it difficult to fight against Taliban.

Currently, Taliban is having control over 50% of Afghanistan. US has realized that the war is not going to end anywhere near to the future. 

US has spent more than 3 trillion dollars since 2001 in terms of security and developmental assistance. Trump knows very well that he can't just bring US troops back home without justifying the America's War in Afghanistan. 

Now US is looking for an honourable exit. Otherwise, it will be considered as America's defeat against Taliban which Trump will never want to happen in his regime.

US has started negotiating with the Taliban and most probably US will recognize Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan. Taliban has a clear strategy in mind before coming to any agreement with the US. It wants to capture more and more area so that they will have an upper hand over the US in the negotiating table.

Taliban rejects any sort of talks with the Afghan government as it considers the Afghan government as a puppet regime of US and wants direct talks with US.

What is the way forward if the US withdrew its troops from Afghanistan. 

All the regional stakeholders like Pakistan, Iran, Russia, India, Central Asian states along with the US should sit together and come to a consensus for peace and stability in Afghanistan.

The international community should put pressure and refrain Pakistan from harbouring terrorists especially Taliban on its soil.

US should pursue Taliban to participate in elections and gain power democratically.

India and China can play very crucial role in the development and stability of Afghanistan. India's goodwill and China's economic resource can give so much to Afghans.

As India puts it well that "any peace process in Afghanistan must be Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled."